We are not economic forecasters, prognosticators or investment advisors. In fact, we claim no crystal ballery skills at all. But we do keep an eye out for consumers and have been tracking some disconcerting signs about the U.S. and global economy that are emerging in 2017. We share the following observations with you because, so far, they’ve stayed below the news radar and they could very likely affect U.S. households in the coming year or two. Rosy projections for a continued economic boom advanced by Trump and some overly-optimistic tax cut proponents appear to be overlooking many troubling economic storm clouds that we are building on the horizon. So, if you are about to make a big purchase, change careers, take-on a large debt or make a big retirement decision, you may want to note the following harbingers of economic turbulence that are on the horizon:
August 2017 – The Congressional Budget Office projected that the economy would grow just 2.1 percent this year, an increase from last year but far lower than Trump’s goals. It also predicted the economy would begin to slow in 2019 and 2020, growing only 1.6 percent in those years.
August 2017 – Home building has continued to lag. Builders have added just 849,000 new single-family homes this past year, well below the 2007 rate of 1,036,000. During past recoveries, the housing industry has jump started the rest of the economy. If we were following historical trends, the number of homes under construction per month would be 35% greater — along with the jobs that go with them. New construction has traditionally been a reliable source of middle-class jobs, but this economic recovery is different. The big fear: millennials can’t and won’t soon be able to afford new housing. A bigger fear: fewer new homes will lead to higher (and more unaffordable) housing in the coming decades.
July 2017 – An analysis by the Economic Innovation Group, a non-profit research and advocacy organization says that for the first time, U.S. companies are dying at a faster rate than they’re being born. Called “Dynamism in Retreat”, the report is a sobering look at how the gig economy is changing America’s economic equation: we aren’t losing jobs as much as we are no longer creating jobs. Axios Tech Editor Kim Hart notes that slow rate of business starts means the U.S. economy is powered by a narrowing segment of companies, people and geographies — making the overall economy less resilient than it was after previous recessions. And without competitive pressures from upstarts, big companies are able to grow bigger faster, increasing industry consolidation. America’s economic engine has historically been driven by small businesses. History may be changing.
July 2017 – Adjusted nominal GDP growth in 2016 was just 2.95%. This makes 2016 the second-worst year on record since 1959. Some of the key drivers of this retraction is the bank lending is falling, corporate tax receipts dropped by the largest margin since 2009, and the flat yield curve revealed in May of this year. Also, signs are of a weak long-term labor force participation rate. That translates into about 30 percent of the US population not working, or actively seeking a job (Note: these workers may be the 30% of voters who currently support Trump). This may also explain why the American population grew at a tiny 0.7 percent last year, the lowest increase since the Great Depression.
June 2017 – According to a New York Times article (and confirmed by a number of other reliable sources) a survey released by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch found a cross-section of fund managers viewed China as the biggest potential source for an unpleasant surprise for global markets for the first time since January 2016. The investor services firm Moody’s also downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating last month, its first such move in 28 years. Global investors are very concerned about how China has resorted to pumping up credit, adding to an already mountainous pile of debt, in order to keep its economy humming. According to the Bank for International Settlements, that debt reached 257 percent of its gross domestic product at the end of 2016, slightly above the same measure in the United States, and significantly higher than the 184 percent for emerging economies over all.
June 2017 – The New York Federal Reserve released a new report that showed U.S. collective household debt balances totaled $12.73 trillion in March 2017, surpassing the 2008 peak of $12.68 trillion. Why is this a concern? Compared with 2008, fewer borrowers have housing-related debt — including their first mortgages, or home equity lines of credit — and instead more have taken on auto and student loans. In fact, student debt in 2017 is five times — 500% more — than it was in 2003. (Editor’s note: Student loans have made it harder for younger consumers to buy homes, thus explaining the drop in housing-related debt.) In fact, student loans are a whopping $671 billion higher — and about 10% of those loans are delinquent. Because student debt can’t be restructured or discharged in bankruptcy, it portends for a large segment of younger Americans will be struggling with debt that will weigh them down for the rest of their lives. This will prevent them from starting businesses, buying homes or saving for retirement! Another troubling trend: Older Americans are taking on a greater share of debt than in years past. Those ages 60 and older held 22.5% of total household debt in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared with 15.9% in 2008 and 12.6% in 2003. Normally, this sector reduces debt as it enters a retirement phase. But in 2017, credit card debt and auto loan debt balances for people ages 60 and older have risen, meaning seniors are relying less upon their savings and more upon credit that they may not be able to payback later. The last troubler: $1.1 trillion in auto loans, subprime loans packaged into asset backed securities are getting crushed by net charge-off rates that are worse than during the Financial Crisis.
May 2017 – Life insurer and financial services provider Northwestern Mutual found that 45% of Americans that have debt spend “up to half of their monthly income on debt repayment.” Excluding mortgage debt, American carry an average debt of $37,000. Of them, 47% carry $25,000 or more, and more than 10% carry $100,000 or more in debt, excluding mortgage debt. While most of them expect to get out of debt before they die, 14% expect to be in debt “for the rest of their lives. This is a concern because credit card debt is about to get more expensive; note the soaring net charge-offs at Capital One, Synchrony, and Discover. If U.S. consumers are cut-off from cheap debt and are forced to live within their means and paying off debt as they go, the U.S. and global economy would take a bit hit.
May 2017 – U.S. durable good orders have dropped…..a lot. Orders for durable goods — items meant to last at least three years — slid 1.1% in May, the Commerce Department reported — the most in 18 months. Business investment in new equipment jumped in the January-March quarter but has leveled off since then. Orders for capital goods, excluding aircraft and military equipment, slipped 0.2% last month, a sign businesses are trimming their spending.
May 2017 – the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was trading at a yield of 2.25 percent per year, while the two-year note yielded 1.28 percent per year. At 0.97 percentage point, the “spread” between the longer-maturity note and the shorter-maturity one is hovering at the lowest levels seen since October. This suggests that the bond market isn’t seeing any economic expansion. While this isn’t an inverted yield curve, which precedes most recessions, it indicates little hope in the markets for a sustained economic expansion.
April 2017 – The Commerce Dept also reported first-quarter US GDP growth of 0.7%, below the 1% economists were expecting. A large reason for the lackluster print was a big drop-off in the amount Americans spent. Real personal consumption grew by just 0.3% in the first quarter, down from an increase of 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016. It’s the smallest increase since Q4 2009, just two quarters after the 2008 recession.